Population collapse or overpopulation: Which is more likely?

Chad (Overpopulation)

Human beings are currently in a dangerous state of overpopulation. While birth rates may be declining in some countries, this is not enough to offset the higher survival rates and increased life expectancies that most countries are seeing. With all the planet’s organisms, exponentially growing populations continue to grow until they exceed their carrying capacity or the ability of the environment to sustain them. After exceeding this limit, many people are predicted to experience mass die-offs due to resource scarcity or disease. This, in turn, leads to population collapse and the idealized sinusoidal population graph for many species. 

Humans have, for centuries, delayed this collapse through innovation and technology such as agriculture, animal husbandry, sanitation, healthcare, medicine, and more. This has allowed the human population to double from 500 million in 1650 to 1 billion in 1850 (200 years), then to 2 billion by 1930 (80 years), then 4 billion by 1975 (45 years), and now a predicted 8 billion by the year 2024. The world is currently millions shy of reaching that number. 

While we have delayed the inevitable through mitigation efforts to sustain the environment, our planet is still finite. Climate change, biodiversity losses, water scarcity, pandemics, rising oceans, crop pests, and other of nature’s positive feedback loops are spiraling out of control. To avoid rapid population collapse, we need to recognize and behave as if we are in an overpopulated situation. We need to rapidly develop technologies and tools to help increase our environment’s carrying capacities rather than allowing its demise. We urgently need renewable energy, new food production systems, circular economies, better health care, and more radical engineering solutions. Until those are in place, we should consciously act to reduce birth rates and human populations before nature does it for us. 

Maha (Population Collapse)

“Population collapse is potentially the greatest risk to the future of civilization,” tweeted Elon Musk in 2021. Contrary to popular belief, non-biased proof supports this statement. A 2020 study published in The Lancet predicts the world population may shrink come 2100, attributing this decline to increased access to contraceptives, improved education of girls and women, and sustained declines in fertility.  

The US and the world have been declining in population rates for decades. Reportedly, America’s younger working-age populations are not replenishing at the rate needed to sustain older generations. According to the US Census Bureau, the population grew by only 0.1% in 2021. While many can blame this on the COVID pandemic, population collapse may also occur due to changes within society itself. In addition to the decline of religion, more women opt for careers. Couple that goal with the rising antinatalism movement and high worldwide abortion rates, and the logical result is fewer or no children. 

Also contributing to reduced population growth are medical advancement and improved quality of life. Because of these, families no longer plan for multiple children to ensure the survival of their lineage. Beyond the US, even the top two countries in terms of population are expecting a quicker population decline. In 2021, China experienced a record low population increase. That, too, despite abandoning the one-child policy and providing incentives with the new three-child policy. 

Similarly, India’s health ministry announced that the country’s fertility rate has fallen below 2.1. This is below the replacement level, where births balance deaths. Other countries may not be as lucky. For instance, Musk believes Japan’s constantly declining population will cause it to “cease to exist.” With growing research pointing towards inevitable population collapse, changes are necessary to prevent it from wiping out whole civilizations.